Quality of earnings, 13-week cash, leverage runway, working-capital unlock and the value levers behind margin expansion and the fortress balance sheet.
Net debt of SEK 12.1 bn sits at 0.8× adjusted EBITDA against the 3.0× ceiling — a fortress (incl. pensions & leases) that funds bolt-ons and post-spin optionality, not a deleveraging problem. Normalizing DSO to 60d releases ≈ SEK 1.3 bn and works down SEK 2.4 bn of >60-day receivables, while SEK 12.5 bn of available liquidity (≈ 7 weeks of cover) carries the separation working-capital build.
6 of 8 headline metrics improving vs prior · still off target: Adjusted Operating Profit SEK 11.7 bn vs SEK 12.2 bn, Adjusted Operating Margin 12.7% vs 17.0%, DSO (Days Sales Outstanding) 65d vs 60d
Closing the DSO gap releases ≈ SEK 1.3 bn of one-time cash; SEK 2.4 bn is already >60 days overdue and at collection risk.
Keep separation spend inside the announced envelope; track footprint payback quarter by quarter.
Separation plus Americas footprint consolidation front-load costs (Q2 2026 IAC −1,004, roughly half separation / half footprint).
Tighten OEM terms & collections; unwind the separation WC build in H2 2026.
>60d AR ≈ MSEK 2,400; the separation working-capital build dented H1 2026 operating cash flow (Q1 −446).
Unbanked margin until captured — rightsizing & footprint fund the >17% post-spin frame.
SEK 3.9 bn of items affecting comparability (34% of adj.) — the audit-grade walk.
Currency translation vs. organic volume / price / mix vs. cost programs & lower material costs vs. divested businesses — FY2024 → FY2025.
Net weekly cash (bars) and ending cash (line) vs. SEK 4.0 bn minimum. Forecast trough: SEK 8.5 bn.
Net debt / adjusted EBITDA against the 3.0× ceiling — a fortress with wide headroom, held through the separation.
Normalizing laggard businesses to a 55-day DSO releases ~SEK 2.6 bn of one-time cash.
Concentrated in the automotive OEM book and SKF Vertevo (long platform terms) plus the separation working-capital build — the fastest cash win this year as the build unwinds in H2 2026.
Aftermarket & services revenue growth and where adjusted operating profit is generated.
Total AR SEK 16.3 bn
Overdue (>60d) = SEK 2.4 bn at collection risk.
Channels ranked by DSO and credit/churn risk.
| Channel | Revenue | DSO | Repeat | Credit/Churn |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Automotive OEMs | SEK 17.4 bn | 75d | 101% | Medium |
| Industrial OEMs (machinery · aero · rail · energy) | SEK 27.0 bn | 68d | 104% | Medium |
| Services & performance contracts | SEK 11.1 bn | 60d | 112% | Low |
| Vehicle aftermarket distributors | SEK 8.6 bn | 58d | 107% | Low |
| Industrial distributors (17,000 locations) | SEK 27.6 bn | 55d | 108% | Low |
Margin, DSO normalization and cost capture (since scaled → current).
| Brand / business | Since | Revenue | Adj profit | DSO | Integration | Cost capture | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SKF | 1907 | SEK 65.6 bn | 8% → SEK 10.6 bn | 70→62d | 95% | 90% | Integrated |
| PEER | 2008 | SEK 900 M | 10% → SEK 120 M | 55→50d | 92% | 85% | Integrated |
| Lincoln | 2010 | SEK 2.5 bn | 14% → SEK 450 M | 60→52d | 100% | 95% | Integrated |
| Alemite | 2010 | SEK 600 M | 12% → SEK 90 M | 58→52d | 100% | 92% | Integrated |
| Kaydon | 2013 | SEK 2.2 bn | 16% → SEK 380 M | 65→58d | 96% | 88% | Integrated |
| @ptitude / IMx / Axios (condition monitoring) | 2015 | SEK 2.9 bn | 18% → SEK 610 M | 50→44d | 88% | 80% | In progress |
| RecondOil | 2018 | SEK 150 M | 5% → SEK 15 M | 45→40d | 70% | 55% | In progress |
| Cooper (split-roller) | 2020 | SEK 450 M | 15% → SEK 80 M | 62→56d | 84% | 70% | In progress |
| SKF Vertevo | 2026 | SEK 23.6 bn | 4% → SEK 896 M | 78→75d | 78% | 60% | In progress |
Steel & input spend, DPO (working-capital lever), delivery and risk.
| Supplier | Category | Spend | DPO | OTIF | Score | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bearing-grade steel (EU mills · green & recycled programs) | Bearing steel (primary input) | SEK 18.0 bn | 60d | 94% | 86 | Medium |
| Components, cages & sealing materials | Components & materials | SEK 8.0 bn | 55d | 92% | 84 | Medium |
| Energy & renewable electricity (91% renewable) | Energy | SEK 4.5 bn | 30d | 97% | 88 | Medium |
| Contract manufacturing & MRO (incl. Industrial→Vertevo transfers) | Contract manufacturing & MRO | SEK 3.8 bn | 40d | 90% | 80 | High |
| Logistics & freight (airfreight-avoidance directive) | Logistics | SEK 3.2 bn | 45d | 91% | 82 | Medium |
| Lubricants, chemicals & process media | Chemicals & lubricants | SEK 2.5 bn | 50d | 93% | 85 | Low |