CFO Scenario Planner

Model the value-creation levers on adjusted operating profit, cash, leverage, covenant and equity value for AB SKF — then run an agentic, web-grounded stress-test that benchmarks the plan against live industrial-bearing peer multiples (Timken, Schaeffler), steel & energy costs, the USD/SEK rate and demand growth.

AB SKF (SKF Group) · FY2025 (Jan–Dec 2025, audited anchor)

World's largest bearing maker today — clear #1 in industrial bearings

37,271 employees · 90+ sites · 130 countries

Scenarios

Pull the levers

Collect faster (DSO)6d

One-time working-capital release+SEK 1.51 bn cash

Extend payables (DPO)4d

One-time, on COGS — pay to terms+SEK 735 M cash

Lift aftermarket & services mix3pt

Shift toward recurring aftermarket & condition monitoring (~8pt premium)+SEK 220 M profit

Capture cross-sell & attach25%

of SEK 13.1 bn whitespace → SEK 3.27 bn rev+SEK 819 M profit

Operational / SG&A gains1pt

Operating leverage · factory utilization · rightsizing & WCM+SEK 949 M profit

EV / adj. op. profit11x

Valuation lens — the agent benchmarks this vs industrial-bearing peers (Timken, Schaeffler)

The agent plans searches, queries DuckDuckGo for live sector multiples, steel & energy costs, the USD/SEK rate and demand growth, then stress-tests your scenario against SKF's record and the market. Illustrative model on real FY2025 baseline figures.

Equity value (shareholder value)

SEK 143.2 bn+SEK 24.1 bn

from SEK 119.1 bn · EV SEK 150.3 bn at 11× − net debt SEK 7.1 bn

Cash freed

SEK 2.2 bn

one-time · −6d DSO, +4d DPO

Baseline → scenariocovenant headroom 2.48x

Metric	Today		Scenario	Δ
Revenue	SEK 91.6 bn	→	SEK 94.9 bn
Adj. op. profit	SEK 11.7 bn	→	SEK 13.7 bn	+SEK 2.0 bn
Adj op margin	12.7%	→	14.4%	+1.7pt
Aftermarket mix	37%	→	40%
Free cash flow	SEK 6.9 bn	→	SEK 10.4 bn	+SEK 3.5 bn
Net leverage	0.80x	→	0.52x	-0.28x
Enterprise value	SEK 128.4 bn	→	SEK 150.3 bn
Equity value	SEK 119.1 bn	→	SEK 143.2 bn	+SEK 24.1 bn

Leverage vs 3x covenant

scenario 0.52xtoday 0.80x (line)