The portfolio & capex cockpit — sourcing, scoring and sequencing SKF's real moves (capacity capex, bolt-ons, divestments, partnerships), paired with proof the capex program still returns — funded against the fortress balance sheet's headroom.
The capex program still returns — growth initiatives average 2.2x ROI with 79% of value banked — so deploy the SEK 34.6 bn of capex headroom the 0.8× fortress affords, but only behind discipline near the 4.8x average capex multiple. Advance the SEK 3.2 bn in Diligence→LOI; the two 1.0× rows are portfolio divestments (proceeds = carrying value), not underperformers.
3 of 4 headline metrics improving vs prior · still off target: Program Realization (rightsizing & WCM) 70.0% vs 100.0%, Adjusted Operating Profit SEK 11.7 bn vs SEK 12.2 bn
8 of 8 moves price inside the SEK 34.6 bn of capex headroom; the one LOI (SEK 1.6 bn) and one IOI (SEK 775 M) carry the near-term commit.
Press the industrial-bearings lead: aftermarket depth, technology and regionalization — word superlatives carefully.
Basic agreement 12 May 2026; joint holding company targeted for Oct 2027 (~24% combined share, press estimate; regulatory risk remains).
Stay on the post-spin frame: >17% mid-term, >19% long-term for the industrial pure-play.
Adjusted margin 12.7% FY2025 → 13.7% H1 2026 (Q2 13.9%); rightsizing run-rate ~1.4 of BSEK 2 banked.
Scale condition monitoring & REP contracts across the 17,000-location distributor network.
Aftermarket & services ≈ MSEK 33,500 (37% of sales); >50% of Industrial revenue is recurring and cycle-dampening.
This is the pre-commit cockpit — sourcing → diligence → capex → execution-risk on every live move (Airasca capacity, the John Sample bolt-on, the aerospace divestments, Leaderdrive, the post-spin bolt-on pipeline, decarbonized factories), paired with the proof that past capex returned, so the next investment is priced and sequenced against the SEK 34.6 bn of capex headroom the 0.8× fortress can actually fund.
Advance the SEK 3.2 bn in Diligence→LOI; 8 of 8 moves price inside the SEK 34.6 bn of capex headroom.
Move: the funnel narrows correctly — one LOI (SEK 1.6 bn) and one IOI (SEK 775 M) carry the near-term commit. Keep filling the top: 1 Sourced idea(s) need an owner this quarter to protect throughput.
Every move, LOI first. Read value-added mix up, customer concentration and execution-risk down — those gate the capex.
| Move | Segment · Region | Rev in scope | EBITDA % | Stage | Capex × | Capex / value | ROI target | Value-add % | Cust conc % | Exec risk | Owner | Status detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Airasca super-precision expansion (+30% capacity) Global centre of excellence for super-precision opened 2025 in Airasca, Italy — the flagship organic-capacity bet. | Bearing Solutions · EMEA | SEK 1.2 bn | 22% | LOI | 4x | SEK 1.1 bn | 2.4x | 55% | 20% | 30 | David Johansson (Industrial, Europe & Africa) | Commissioned — +30% capacity ramping through 2026 on aerospace & machine-tool demand |
John Sample Group — lubrication acquisition (Australia) 2024 bolt-on folded into Lubrication Lifetime Solutions — the template for post-spin industrial M&A. | Specialized Industrial Solutions (SIS) · India & Southeast Asia | SEK 400 M | 15% | LOI | 5x | SEK 300 M | 2.2x | 60% | 18% | 25 | Hans Landin (SIS) | Closed 2024 — integration into Lincoln/Alemite lubrication platform in progress |
Hanover PA aerospace ring & seal — divestment (+744 gain) Sold April 2025; +MSEK 744 gain booked through IAC — portfolio pruning sharpens the aerospace focus. | Specialized Industrial Solutions (SIS) · Americas | SEK 775 M | 12% | IOI | 8x | SEK 744 M | 1x | 40% | 35% | 20 | Manish Bhatnagar (Industrial, Americas & Australia) | Completed Apr 2025 — proceeds inside the +2,188 divestment cash line |
Elgin IL aerospace — divestment (Q1 2026) Announced Q1 2026 — completes the US aerospace pruning after Hanover and the Kaydon trademark sales. | Specialized Industrial Solutions (SIS) · Americas | SEK 500 M | 10% | Diligence | 8x | SEK 400 M | 1x | 40% | 30% | 25 | Manish Bhatnagar (Industrial, Americas & Australia) | Signed — completing; Kaydon aerospace-related trademarks partially divested alongside |
Tortuguitas Argentina — production closure Production discontinued Oct 2025 — supply shifts to regional hubs under produce-where-you-sell. | Bearing Solutions · Americas | SEK 300 M | 4% | Diligence | 1.5x | SEK 18 M | 1.5x | 30% | 25% | 35 | Manish Bhatnagar (Industrial, Americas & Australia) | Wind-down executing; demand served from Mexico & Brazil clusters |
Post-spin bolt-on M&A pipeline (industrial) Balance-sheet optionality at 0.8× earmarked for industrial bolt-ons once Vertevo lists Q4 2026. | Bearing Solutions · EMEA | SEK 1.5 bn | 16% | Contacted | 6x | SEK 1.4 bn | 2x | 45% | 20% | 50 | Rickard Gustafson (President & CEO) | Screening — condition monitoring, magnetic & lubrication adjacencies favoured |
Leaderdrive — humanoid-robotics partnership Announced Jul 2026 — precision joints & bearings for humanoid robots; a technology-led growth bet. | Bearing Solutions · China & Northeast Asia | SEK 250 M | 18% | Contacted | 3x | SEK 135 M | 3x | 35% | 30% | 45 | Annika Ölme (CTO) | Co-development scoping; pilot lines targeted for 2027 |
Decarbonized factories — next wave Six more factories decarbonized Dec 2025 (−79% vs 2019 achieved); next wave scoped toward −95% by 2030. | Bearing Solutions · EMEA | SEK 200 M | 12% | Sourced | 2.5x | SEK 60 M | 2.5x | 40% | 10% | 30 | Susanne Larsson (CFO & Chief Sustainability Officer) | Site shortlist drafted; green-electricity contracts in negotiation |
Easiest to execute first. Clean, value-added builds go now; concentrated, complex moves get hard diligence and a gate.
Execution priority: commission the top of this list first — low risk plus high value-added mix banks the run-rate fast and keeps the PMO unblocked before the heavier, concentration-risk moves enter the build plan.
Growth capex averages 2.2x ROI; 79% of value banked. Divestments (2) return 1.0x by design — proceeds, not underperformers.
| Move | Started | Capex / value | Capex × | Value plan | Value real | Implied ROI | Payback | IRR % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airasca super-precision expansion (+30%) | 2025 | SEK 1.1 bn | 4x | SEK 264 M | SEK 120 M | 2.4x | 4y | 20% |
| Hanover PA aerospace — divestment (+744 gain) | 2025 | SEK 744 M | 8x | SEK 744 M | SEK 744 M | 1x | 1y | 12% |
| Luton UK site — divestment (+224 gain) | 2025 | SEK 224 M | 6x | SEK 224 M | SEK 224 M | 1x | 1y | 10% |
| John Sample Group — lubrication (2024) | 2024 | SEK 300 M | 5x | SEK 60 M | SEK 35 M | 2.2x | 4.6y | 17% |
| RecondOil circularity scale-up | 2018 | SEK 250 M | 3.5x | SEK 120 M | SEK 60 M | 2.5x | 5y | 15% |
| Kaydon — slewing & thin-section (2013) | 2013 | SEK 8.2 bn | 11x | SEK 900 M | SEK 900 M | 1.8x | 8y | 11% |
| Lincoln Industrial — lubrication (2010) | 2010 | SEK 7.1 bn | 10x | SEK 800 M | SEK 800 M | 1.9x | 7y | 12% |
Read: the growth capex returns — Airasca super-precision and RecondOil circularity ~2.4–2.5x, the Lincoln & Kaydon legacy platforms ~1.8–1.9x — averaging 2.2x; the model works when the ramp lands. The two 1.0x rows are portfolio divestments (Hanover +744, Luton +224 gains) booked at carrying value — proceeds, not underperformers. Hold capex discipline near the 4.8x average before committing the next round.
The bearing majors' moves set the competitive bar for SKF's own capex — with the landscape consolidating.
| Date | Peer | Move | Value | End-market | Read-through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | NSK | NTN — merger under a joint holding company | SEK 101.0 bn | Bearings | Combined revenue ~USD 11 bn (~MSEK 101,000) — would displace SKF as #1 by revenue; Oct 2027 target, regulatory risk remains. |
| 2026-03-10 | C&U Group | Up-market industrial bearing push (China) | SEK 2.0 bn | Bearings | Chinese volume leaders (C&U / LYC / ZWZ) moving up-market — the value-end squeeze PEER answers. |
| 2026-02-20 | JTEKT | Bearing capacity expansion — India | SEK 2.5 bn | Bearings | Bearings segment ¥347 bn of the ¥1,925 bn group (FYE Mar 2026). |
| 2025-12-05 | MinebeaMitsumi | Miniature-bearing capacity expansion | SEK 3.0 bn | Miniature bearings | Dominates miniature bearings; pushing into precision motors. |
| 2025-11-15 | Timken | Industrial motion bolt-ons (serial) | SEK 3.5 bn | Bearings & motion | FY2025 sales $4.6 bn — the closest post-spin industrial comp; 2026 outlook +2-4%. |
| 2024-10-01 | Schaeffler | Vitesco Technologies — merger (completed Oct 2024) | SEK 38.0 bn | Bearings & e-mobility | FY2025 revenue €23.5 bn — now a bearings + e-mobility hybrid; bearings-comparable business smaller than headline. |
So what: the landscape is consolidating — NSK and NTN plan to merge by Oct 2027 (would displace SKF as #1 by revenue), Schaeffler is a bearings + e-mobility hybrid post-Vitesco, and Timken is the closest post-spin industrial comp. Hold capex discipline near our 4.8x average and lead with the aftermarket, condition-monitoring and magnetic adjacencies where the returns are strongest.