The Vertevo listing-readiness lens — what drives the industrial pure-play re-rating: the separation workstreams, normalized earnings, the EV → market-cap bridge, the fortress balance sheet and the governance ahead of the Q4 2026 Nasdaq Stockholm listing.
At an 8.3× multiple, adjusted EBITDA of SEK 15.7 bn frames a SEK 130.1 bn enterprise value, a SEK 118.0 bn market cap and SEK 100.1 bn of free float & institutional value. The SEK 3.9 bn run-rate-vs-reported gap is worth SEK 32.5 bn of EV, so make the earnings bridge audit-proof and clear the Board listing proposal + EGM approval (autumn 2026) block before the listing prospectus goes out.
3 of 4 headline metrics improving vs prior · still off target: Adjusted Operating Profit SEK 11.7 bn vs SEK 12.2 bn, Net Revenue Retention (top accounts) 106.0% vs 110.0%
The market re-rates on run-rate, not reported — at 8.3× that SEK 3.9 bn gap is worth SEK 32.5 bn of enterprise value.
The lowest-% listing-readiness item is the top execution risk: Subject to Board proposal and shareholders' approval — EGM not yet convened.
Keep separation spend inside the announced envelope; track footprint payback quarter by quarter.
Separation plus Americas footprint consolidation front-load costs (Q2 2026 IAC −1,004, roughly half separation / half footprint).
Tighten OEM terms & collections; unwind the separation WC build in H2 2026.
>60d AR ≈ MSEK 2,400; the separation working-capital build dented H1 2026 operating cash flow (Q1 −446).
The cockpit is strong day-to-day — but this is the separation & re-rating lens. It cuts through to what drives the industrial pure-play re-rating: the fortress balance sheet, normalized earnings, the EV → market-cap bridge and the Vertevo listing-readiness checklist. At an 8.3× multiple, adjusted EBITDA of SEK 15.7 bnand SEK 12.1 bn of net debt frame the whole conversation — the Q4 2026 Nasdaq Stockholm listing pending Board proposal + EGM.
Reported EBITDA → add back IAC → Adjusted EBITDA → annualize rightsizing savings + Airasca/SIS ramp − Vertevo stand-alone dis-synergies → Run-rate normalized.
So what: the market re-rates on run-rate, not reported — the gap is SEK 3.9 bn of EBITDA. At the 8.3× multiple that gap is worth SEK 32.5 bn of enterprise value, which is exactly why the earnings bridge has to be defensible to analysts.
Enterprise value → less net debt → Equity value (market cap) → less FAM/Wallenberg anchor (15.2% of capital) → Free float & institutional value.
Equity value: an 8.3× multiple on SEK 15.7 bn adjusted EBITDA frames a SEK 130.1 bn enterprise value; net debt takes SEK 12.1 bn off the top to a SEK 118.0 bn market cap. With FAM/Wallenberg holding ~15.2% of capital (29.2% of votes), SEK 100.1 bn is the free float & institutional value — the value the listed market actually prices.
FCF after the SEK 7.75 dividend and the separation pays net debt down while leverage FALLS; the covenant ceiling is 3.0×. Net debt 12,052 (FY2025) → ~7,500 mid-2026.
| Period | Beg net debt | Net paydown | End net debt | Adj EBITDA | Leverage | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 (act) | SEK 18.0 bn | −SEK 1.5 bn | SEK 16.5 bn | SEK 16.3 bn | 1.00× | Actual |
| H1 2025 (act) | SEK 16.5 bn | −SEK 2.2 bn | SEK 14.3 bn | SEK 15.9 bn | 0.89× | Actual |
| Q3 2025 (act) | SEK 14.3 bn | −SEK 900 M | SEK 13.4 bn | SEK 15.8 bn | 0.84× | Actual |
| Q4 2025 (act) | SEK 13.4 bn | −SEK 1.3 bn | SEK 12.1 bn | SEK 15.7 bn | 0.77× | Actual |
| H1 2026 (act) | SEK 12.1 bn | −SEK 4.6 bn | SEK 7.5 bn | SEK 15.7 bn | 0.48× | Actual |
| FY2026 (fcst) | SEK 7.5 bn | −SEK 500 M | SEK 7.0 bn | SEK 15.9 bn | 0.44× | Forecast |
SKF's net-debt definition includes lease liabilities & net pension provisions (label the basis); EUR green bonds dominate the loans, and the EUR 800 M RCF is undrawn (ex-pensions gearing just 10.2%).
| Tranche | Kind | Balance | Rate | Maturity | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net post-employment provisions (pensions) | Pension | SEK 6.4 bn | Actuarial | Long-dated | Included in SKF's net-debt definition — label the basis (ex-pensions gearing is 10.2%). |
| EUR 400 M green bond (due 2028) | Term | SEK 4.3 bn | EUR fixed ~1.6% (green) | 2028 | Green framework — EUR 700 M allocated to 220 projects. |
| EUR 300 M green bond (due 2029) | Term | SEK 3.2 bn | EUR fixed ~2.1% (green) | 2029 | Green bond under the same framework. |
| EUR 300 M notes (due 2031) | Term | SEK 3.2 bn | EUR fixed ~3.4% | 2031 | Average loan maturity ~4 years. |
| Lease liabilities (IFRS 16) | Lease | SEK 2.9 bn | ≈3.5% | Rolling | Included in SKF's net-debt definition. |
| USD 100 M bilateral loan (due 2027) | Term | SEK 919 M | USD ~4.5% | 2027 | Bilateral facility. |
| Other borrowings & commercial paper | Term | SEK 360 M | ~3.0% | Rolling | Brings gross loans to MSEK 12,089. |
| EUR 800 M syndicated RCF (to 2030) + EIB EUR 430 M — undrawn | Revolver | SEK 0 M | Undrawn | 2030 | Committed liquidity backstop — undrawn at year-end. |
| Other financial assets | Cash | SEK -320 M | — | — | Nets to headline net debt MSEK 12,052. |
| Cash & short-term investments | Cash | SEK -9.0 bn | — | — | Nets against gross debt. |
Repeat-order rate dips at transition, then recovers as the installed base and multi-year programs mature.
| Brand | Since | Repeat at start | Yr 1 (dip) | Repeat now | Yr-1 attrition | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SKF | 1907 | 100% | 100% | 106% | 3% | Master brand; the distribution spine holds the cycle. |
| PEER | 2008 | 96% | 98% | 108% | 7% | Value segment vs Chinese entrants — holding share. |
| Lincoln | 2010 | 98% | 101% | 112% | 4% | Lubrication attach to bearings keeps compounding. |
| Kaydon | 2013 | 97% | 96% | 105% | 6% | Slewing/thin-section; aero trademarks partially divested 2025. |
| Cooper (split-roller) | 2020 | 97% | 95% | 109% | 6% | Split-roller niche; marine & energy installed base. |
| SKF Vertevo | 2026 | 99% | 97% | 101% | 8% | OEM platforms churn with EV transitions; vehicle aftermarket steadies the book. |
Transition dips the base early, then the maturing installed base recovers it above 105 — except SKF Vertevo, where OEM platform churn with EV transitions caps it near 101 — the revenue-quality point investors probe before the spin.
The top execution risk is the lowest-% item — Board listing proposal + EGM approval (autumn 2026) (60%): Subject to Board proposal and shareholders' approval — EGM not yet convened.