The front of the order book — order & tender pipeline by stage (industrial OEM, aerospace, magnetic & aftermarket demand), forecast vs plan, win/loss, and the deals that decide the quarter.
Q3 2026 commit SEK 21.5 bn sits SEK 1.3 bn below the SEK 22.8 bn plan — SEK 2.1 bn of best-case upside must convert to make the number. Coverage is 0.5x on SEK 11.5 bn of pipeline; the call is winnable but only if the at-risk upside is forced to close.
2 of 3 headline metrics improving vs prior · still off target: Organic Growth (H1 2026) 1.9% vs 4.0%, Aftermarket & Services Revenue SEK 33.5 bn vs SEK 36.0 bn
Commit SEK 21.5 bn is SEK 1.3 bn short of the SEK 22.8 bn Q3 2026 plan — the gap that decides whether the quarter lands.
Each lost contract is recurring aftermarket & services revenue — the cycle-dampening spine — that won't repeat.
Value win-rate is 73% (SEK 7.2 bn won vs SEK 2.7 bn lost); Price vs Asian competitors (C&U / LYC / NSK) is the single largest leak at SEK 1.5 bn.
Each lost contract is recurring aftermarket & services revenue — the cycle-dampening spine — that won't repeat.
SKF is pursuing SEK 11.5 bn of order pipeline across the funnel (SEK 4.8 bn weighted). This view answers the sales chief's two questions — will we make the quarter (forecast vs plan) and why we win or lose — and points at the deals that move the number.
Value and win-probability rise toward the close — weighted value is what to bank on.
Dark fill = win-probability within each stage's value. Weighted pipeline totals SEK 4.8 bn.
Commit, best-case and closed-to-date against the plan line.
Q3 2026: commit SEK 21.5 bn is SEK 1.3 bn below the SEK 22.8 bn plan; SEK 2.1 bn of best-case upside must convert to close the gap. Black line = plan.
Clone the win reasons into low-win families; attack the top loss reason first.
Read it: technology & application engineering depth wins the most (SEK 3.2 bn); Price vs Asian competitors (C&U / LYC / NSK) is the top loss (SEK 1.5 bn) — tighten discount discipline (see Order & Tender 360) before chasing new demand.
Signal-sourced deals convert higher — prioritize them.
| Opportunity | Customer | Solution | Value | Stage | Win % | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aerospace engine & structures multi-year awards | Industrial OEMs (machinery · aero · rail · energy) | Specialized Industrial Solutions (SIS) | SEK 2.2 bn | Develop | 55% | outbound |
| Data-centre & high-speed magnetic bearings ramp | Industrial OEMs (machinery · aero · rail · energy) | Specialized Industrial Solutions (SIS) | SEK 1.8 bn | Proposal | 62% | signal |
| Railway high-speed & metro programs (China & India) | Industrial OEMs (machinery · aero · rail · energy) | Bearing Solutions | SEK 1.4 bn | Proposal | 58% | signal |
| Vehicle aftermarket expansion beyond Europe (Vertevo) | Vehicle aftermarket distributors | Automotive (SKF Vertevo) | SEK 1.1 bn | Develop | 52% | signal |
| Condition-monitoring attach — top 500 distributor accounts | Industrial distributors (17,000 locations) | Condition monitoring & REP contracts | SEK 900 M | Qualify | 45% | signal |
| Humanoid robotics — Leaderdrive co-development | Industrial OEMs (machinery · aero · rail · energy) | Bearing Solutions | SEK 400 M | Qualify | 40% | signal |